35 years (the length of time I've spent on our wee faire isle) is not even a nanosecond in geological time, and not very long in terms of human history. Long enough, though to have seen our little island population go from 480 to about 4000. Imagine if our collective numbers went up 9 times in 35 years- that's like 55 billion people on earth by 2040.....
I often wonder whether we ever 'plan' to reach a population asymptote, or whether some Malthusian force will simply put an end to our expansion.
A wonderful normative graph on 'peak oil' which shows global production sinca ca 1870 indicates a pretty clear projected top-of-curve sometime, well, around now... Problem is, you don't know whether you've reached peak oil 'til after it has happened.
But the most salient thing, and Kunstler reminded us of this in his book, The Long Emergency, is that sliding down the curve ain't nearly as much fun as the fiesta time on the way up.
We've seen the market reaction to perceived short time disruptions to oils supplies; what will it be like when we are competing for genuinely short supplies over a longer time?
Frankly, I think any thin veneer of civility among the populace will disppear pretty quickly. Like rushing for candles and batteries when the hurricane watch is posted.
As our population increases, and the demands/desires of people well schooled in consumption continue to do what we're best at, the progression of ecosystem destruction, species and bio-diversity loss, accumulation of toxins in the biosphere can only go in the same direction. Even if we do nice things like recycle more, protect habitat, use less energy per capitum...
The facts are pretty simple: more folks =more stuff= more impact.
I think that is a sobering backdrop for the small events on a small island.
